{"id":2548,"date":"2025-05-31T10:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-05-31T10:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/consultingcya.com.ar\/informe-economico-mayo-2025\/"},"modified":"2026-04-18T20:37:21","modified_gmt":"2026-04-18T20:37:21","slug":"informe-economico-mayo-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/consultingcya.com.ar\/en\/informe-economico-mayo-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Economic Report | May 2025 \u2014 Post-Liberalization Stabilization: Rising Reserves and Record Mining Exports"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\\!-- INFORME ECON\u00d3MICO MAYO 2025 --> <\/p>\n

\n
\u25aa INFORME ECON\u00d3MICO \u00b7 MAYO 2025<\/div>\n

Estabilizaci\u00f3n Post-Liberalizaci\u00f3n: Reservas en Alza y Exportaciones Mineras R\u00e9cord<\/h2>\n

Monthly analysis prepared by C&A Integral Consulting<\/strong> \u00b7 northern Argentina, Argentina<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

<!-- KEY INDICATORS --><\/p>\n

\n
\n
National CPI<\/div>\n
3,2%<\/div>\n
Monthly variation \u00b7 INDEC<\/div>\n
\u2194 Ajuste post-cambio cambiario<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
\n
Official Exchange Rate<\/div>\n
$1.180<\/div>\n
Monthly average \u00b7 BCRA<\/div>\n
Banda cambiaria: operando cerca del piso<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
\n
Gross Reserves BCRA<\/div>\n
USD 34.500M<\/div>\n
Al cierre de Mayo 2025<\/div>\n
\u2191 Compras BCRA sostenidas<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
\n
Primary Fiscal Result<\/div>\n
Surplus<\/div>\n
12\u00b0 mes consecutivo \u00b7 Mecon<\/div>\n
IMF target: met<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

<\\!-- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY --><\/p>\n

\ud83d\udccb Executive Summary<\/h3>\n

Mayo 2025 confirma la estabilizaci\u00f3n del nuevo esquema cambiario: el tipo de cambio oper\u00f3 mayormente en la mitad inferior de la banda ($1.000\u2013$1.400), lo que le permiti\u00f3 al BCRA acumular m\u00e1s de USD 5.000M desde la liberalizaci\u00f3n de abril. La inflaci\u00f3n de 3,2% refleja el pass-through parcial de la liberalizaci\u00f3n, aunque el componente n\u00facleo ya comenz\u00f3 a desacelerar. El sector exportador del norte argentino celebra el nuevo esquema: los productores de litio, tabaco y soja registraron mayor rentabilidad en pesos, incrementando las liquidaciones de divisas.<\/p>\n

<\\!-- INFLATION TREND --><\/p>\n

\ud83d\udcca Monthly Inflation Trends \u2014 Last 13 Months<\/h3>\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Month<\/th>\nMonthly CPI<\/th>\nDisplay<\/th>\nComparison<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
May 2024<\/td>\n4,2%<\/td>\n\n
<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
Major turning point<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
June 2024<\/td>\n4,6%<\/td>\n\n
<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Jul 2024<\/td>\n4,0%<\/td>\n\n
<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Aug 2024<\/td>\n4,2%<\/td>\n\n
<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Sep 2024<\/td>\n3,5%<\/td>\n\n
<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Oct 2024<\/td>\n2,4%<\/td>\n\n
<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
Minimum two-year period<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Nov 2024<\/td>\n2,4%<\/td>\n\n
<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Dec 2024<\/td>\n2,7%<\/td>\n\n
<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Jan 2025<\/td>\n2,3%<\/td>\n\n
<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
Minimum mid-2021<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Feb 2025<\/td>\n2,4%<\/td>\n\n
<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
March 2025<\/td>\n3,7%<\/td>\n\n
<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
Effect of tariffs<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Apr 2025<\/td>\n3,0%<\/td>\n\n
<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
Post-liberalization<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u2714 May 2025<\/td>\n3,2%<\/td>\n\n
<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
Pass-through cambiario<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

Source: INDEC \u2013 National CPI. Prepared by C&A Integral Consulting.<\/p>\n

<\\!-- MINING SECTOR northern Argentina --><\/p>\n

\u26cf\ufe0f Mining sector of northern Argentina: Analysis and Perspectives<\/h3>\n

Mayo 2025 consolida al norte argentino como polo exportador nacional. Las exportaciones de litio superaron los USD 380M en el trimestre, mientras que los proyectos de cobre en etapa avanzada de evaluaci\u00f3n ambiental anticipan un boom inversor para 2026.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Mineral<\/th>\nExports 2025 (approx.)<\/th>\nVar. ia.<\/th>\nPerspective<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Lithium (carbonate)<\/td>\nUSD 120M+<\/td>\n+15%<\/td>\n\u25b2 Expansion<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Borates<\/td>\nUSD 18M<\/td>\n+3%<\/td>\n\u2192 Stable<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Lead\/Zinc (Jujuy)<\/td>\nUSD 29M<\/td>\n+9%<\/td>\n\u25b2 Expansion<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Oil and Gas <\/td>\nUSD 75M<\/td>\n+6%<\/td>\n\u25b2 Expansion<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Source: INDEC \u2013 Foreign Trade Statistics. Provincial Mining Secretariats. Prepared by the author.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

<\\!-- NORMATIVE CONTEXT --><\/p>\n

\u26a1 Novedades Normativas y Tributarias \u2014 Mayo 2025<\/h3>\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Body<\/th>\nRegulations \/ Resolution<\/th>\nImpact on companies<\/th>\nRelevance<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
BCRA<\/td>\nCom. A 8084: r\u00e9gimen de acceso al mercado de cambios para inversiones mineras<\/td>\nFacilita repatriaci\u00f3n de utilidades y acceso a divisas para insumos<\/td>\nHIGH<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ARK<\/td>\nRG 5612\/2025: actualizaci\u00f3n del r\u00e9gimen de informaci\u00f3n de precios de transferencia<\/td>\nGrupos multinacionales mineros deben presentar documentaci\u00f3n actualizada<\/td>\nHIGH<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
UIF<\/td>\nResoluci\u00f3n 31\/2025: gu\u00eda de se\u00f1ales de alerta para sector minero y energ\u00e9tico<\/td>\nEmpresas del sector deben revisar sus manuales de prevenci\u00f3n AML<\/td>\nCRITICISM<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
northern Argentina<\/td>\nLey 8.219: creaci\u00f3n del Fondo Provincial de Desarrollo Minero Sustentable<\/td>\n10% de regal\u00edas mineras destinadas a infraestructura en municipios mineros<\/td>\nAVERAGE<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

Source: Official Gazette, UIF resolutions, BCRA and provincial Ministries of Finance. Prepared by the author.<\/p>\n

<\\!-- PERSPECTIVES --><\/p>\n

\ud83d\udd2d Perspectivas para Junio<\/h3>\n
\n
\n
\u2705 Positive Signs<\/div>\n